Just another WordPress weblog

An overarching theme in the telecommunications industry of late has been the declining value of voice. For a while, we were seeing some real stagnation. As the market for cell phones hit saturation, the only place voice prices could go was down. And so we saw an emphasis on text messaging, with carriers offering various packages in order to guarantee some additional monthly income. Then came the unlimited voice packages, which is an attempt to raise the average amount each customers spends per month. Soon, this will all shift to data, which is nice for the carriers, since that sector isn’t even close to saturation. But it’s growing. In fact, the number of mobile broadband users — that is, using mobile broadband cards from their laptops — grew 154 percent from the fourth quarter 06 to the same period in 07.

The number ended at 2.168 million, and it’s easy to see another at least 100 percent jump in 2008. Our economy seems to be trending towards a less centralized workforce. This means more telecommuting employees. Of course, they’ll always need to be connected, so smartphones like the BlackBerry and mobile broadband cards figure to surge.

In fact, 24/7 Wall Street doesn’t think it’s hard to see the total hitting 10 million over the next two or three years. While that would represent a huge growth, it wouldn’t be a proportional growth in terms of profit for the telecoms. The only way I can see 10 million people using mobile broadband is if the price comes down. Until then, I think we’ll see steady growth to a point.

I wonder aloud if they have any stats for how many people use mobile broadband in a one-off situation. For instance, people traveling for a short period of time might sign up for the service for a month and then cancel.

In any case, yes, we’re going to see some significant growth in mobile broadband over the next few years.

[24/7 Wall Street]

Share on Facebook | Add to De.licio.us | Digg This! | Technorati