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Predicting wireless in 2008

Posted by Joe P on December 20, 2007

It’s always fun to link to and discuss articles like this. InCode, subsidiary of the consulting firm VeriSign, has made 10 bold predictions regarding the immediate future of the wireless industry. These are supposedly to “help technology vendors and consumers better plan for the coming year.” However, we like them for entertainment and debate value. After the jump, we’ll list ‘em.

1. High-speed packet access (HDPA) will flourish.
2. 700 MHz auction might provide an opportunity for a wholesale carrier.
3. Open access will mean more devices, but they’ll be more expensive.
4. Internet Protocol-based networks and open access will mean greater disparity in quality among carriers.
5. Wireless broadband will continue to be the carriers’ fastest-growing services.
6. P2P will hit the mainstream*.
7. Wireless coverage inside buildings will move to the forefront of carrier strategy.
8. Widespread 3G will mean more backhaul costs for operators.
9. Advertising will supplant subscription-based models.
10. “A major iPhone security incident will occur in the enterprise, raising awareness of and need for mobile device security. ”

* This comes with a mention of DRM-protected files. We’re not quite sure how much longer DRM is going to last — Apple is experimenting with DRM-free files, and we like the idea. Instead of limiting the number of times you can copy the files (which is BS — you do own the files, after all), it imprints your user data on the files. So if your files are found being distributed via P2P, it can be traced back to you.

Some aspects, like HSDPA, are pretty obvious. Yes, we know that a faster mobile Internet will always be at the front of carriers’ minds. And we know that the mobile world is embracing advertising. And we know that a Top 10 list wouldn’t be complete without an iPhone mention.

As for the more expensive phones because of open access…well, we’ll save our commentary on that. It’ll make for a good 1,500-word column.

[InformationWeek]

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Filed under : Cell Phone Service




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